Modelling market behaviour in electricity generation expansion Event as iCalendar

(Engineering Science, Research seminar)

04 March 2015

3 - 4pm

Venue: Room 439.201

Location: Level 2, UniServices House, 70 Symonds Street

Host: Dr Richard Clarke

Contact email:


A research seminar by Corey Kok, PhD candidate, Department of Engineering Science.

Portrait image of Corey Kok, PhD student of the Department of Engineering Science.


The current state of the art model for predicting expansion decisions, in the context of the New Zealand electricity market, is the Generation Expansion Model (GEM). Given many constraints, this model chooses to invest to maximize the welfare of the system. GEM does not model the uncertainty and the resulting risk adverse behaviour of the agents who make investment decisions.

So far, we have formulated an equivalent competitive model and shown that in the risk neutral case, decisions are the same. We have also incorporated a risk measure and shown how this leads to different investment decisions due to different incentives (in terms of how to weigh each outcome) between the competitive and overall welfare maximising model.

We have taken this model and made several modifications to the model itself as well as the data. We created test cases to observe their impact on expansion decisions and the individual and overall welfare. These include creating models that have: Vertical integration, demand response, Arrow-Debreu securities, contracts for difference, nodes and lines, and several others.